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Safina L.A., Tukhbatullina Leysan Marselevna, Ibragimova Zifa, Gazizova Nailya Forecasting tendencies of fashion on an example of clothes from natural fur. Journal of Clothing Science. 2018; 3(1). Available at: https://kostumologiya.ru/PDF/04IVKL118.pdf (in Russian).

Forecasting tendencies of fashion on an example of clothes from natural fur

Safina Liudmila Aleksandrovna
Kazan national research technological university, Kazan, Russia
E-mail: lsafina@mail.ru

Tukhbatullina Leysan Marselevna
Kazan national research technological university, Kazan, Russia
E-mail: office@kstu.ru

Ibragimova Zifa
Kazan national research technological university, Kazan, Russia
E-mail: zifachka@bk.ru

Gazizova Nailya
Kazan national research technological university, Kazan, Russia
E-mail: nelli.bae@yandex.ru

Abstract. Design concept of clothes is a branch of production, in which the use of techniques has a great importance that allow predicting trends and tendencies in the use of new technologies, materials and methods of shaping. Forecasting tendencies in the development of these areas is an important factor forming a promising collection of clothing. The use techniques of designing founded on forecast allow enterprises to plan an produced assortment answering to customer demand and having social relevance in general. The need for trends forecasting is related to the mutual interest of designers and industrial groups in economic success. Based on forecasts, designers strive to meet not only the expectations of a single target group, but also create new materials and develop modern technologies. Forecasting in the field of fur clothing has a number of features that must be taken into account when design concept. There are many forecasting approaches in design: formal, intuitive, sociological and astrological. The use of data from a single forecast doesn’t allow you to obtain information that exactly corresponds to reality. The designers are faced with the task of developing and using a method to obtain a reliable forecast. The method of forecasting in design concept, proposed by the authors of the article, is based on the mutual comparison of data from several types of forecasts, in particular mathematical modeling methods used in the compilation of a formal forecast, and sociological forecasting methods, based on the analysis of observational data on developments of designers of different levels of training and production experience. Mathematical modeling, which is most effectively used in the preparation of a formal forecast, involves a consistent analysis of the historical development of composite clothing elements for a fairly long period. The authors of the article disclose all the successive stages of carrying out a formal forecast, give an example of the development and extrapolation of the principles of shaping into the future using fur clothing as an example. As part of the sociological forecast, the authors of the article suggest using the data obtained on the basis of participation in the contest and analysis of the final works of the finalists EVRASIA REMIX – 2017. Another important source of information about future trends is the exhibition of works by professionals from the world of fashion. The conclusion of the article highlights the main directions of fur fashion, which will presumably form the concept of designing collections for the period 2017-2020. The forecast data presented in this article are based on several indicators, which included: formal forecast data, weeks of fashion analysis, professional exhibitions, retail study, lifestyle and processed information of various events (direct and indirect presentations).

Keywords: prediction methods; forecasting methods; formal forecast; pulsation elements; fur clothing

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